Election will give answers





 

 

It was long ago that the jousting leading up to the Nov. 4 election began. But finally, election day is upon us, and some questions will be answered.

• Does Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential candidate, have a chance to carry Republican-dominated Texas over Republican nominee John McCain?

Probably not. Polls show Obama behind in Texas by the high single digits, and neither Obama nor McCain thought the state was in play enough to award it “battleground” status.

In fact, Texas Obama supporters have been called on to make telephone calls to voters in places like New Mexico and Ohio, which have tighter contests.

Despite that, Texans are paying to purchase tens of thousands of Obama yard signs, and a surprising number of them are showing up in posh suburban neighborhoods.

There are lots of volunteers, and a considerable number of Texans who aren’t convinced their vote for Obama won’t be enough to put Texas’ 34 electoral votes in the Democratic column.

• Does Democrat Rick Noriega have any chance of unseating incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn?

Again, according to the polls, probably not. But the fact that Cornyn has vastly outspent Noriega hasn’t kept the five-term state representative from Houston from campaigning as though he actually might win. It is unlikely he would beat Cornyn, however, unless Obama takes Texas.

• Can the Democrats gain the five seats in the Texas House of Representatives to give them a majority?

Maybe. Gaining more than four seats, observers think, will take many boots on the ground, plus a lot of straight-ticket Democratic voting.

However, a group of Democrats have raised a considerable amount, helping to make several seats now held by Republicans vulnerable.

To gain a majority, in addition to picking off some Republican seats, several Democrats elected in 2006 by slim majorities will have to hang onto their seats.

• If Democrats do reach a majority, will that be enough to unseat powerful Republican House Speaker Tom Craddick?

It will depend upon whether enough consensus around one person could be reached to oust Craddick. Some so-called “Craddick D’s” – Democratic House members who have been on Craddick’s team – might throw in with him again if he is close.

On the other hand, around a dozen Republican ABC’s – Republicans for Anybody But Craddick – have been quietly meeting, to be ready to coalesce with the Democrats to elect either a Democratic speaker, or one of the Republican ABC’s.

Meanwhile, Craddick has a strong challenge for his Midland House seat from popular former Midland City Councilman Bill Dingus, who has put a considerable amount of his own money into his campaign.

If Craddick wins re-election to his House seat, but is voted out as speaker, some onlookers wonder whether he would return to the House and serve his term — as former Democratic Speaker Pete Laney did after he was ousted by Craddick — or resign.

• Can the Democrats increase their meager share of the state’s congressional seats?

The Democrats hold just 13 seats, to the GOP’s 19. They hope to pick up two seats, and hold one they picked up in 2006.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has put Republican U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul of Austin on its target list.

His Democratic challenger in the 10th District is Larry Joe Doherty, a former Houston lawyer now from Austin. He is best known for starring as a judge in a TV series called “Texas Justice.” Doherty has raised more than $1 million.

In Houston’s 7th District, incumbent Republican John Culberson is undergoing a surprisingly strong challenge from Democrat Michael Skelly, a former wind energy executive, who has put more than $1 million of his own money into the race.

And in the 22nd District, incumbent Democrat Nick Lampson replaced former Republican House Majority Leader Tom DeLay when he quit the House under legal and ethical clouds.

Lampson is challenged in 2008 by Pete Olson, a former Navy officer, former chief of staff for John Cornyn, and before that a staffer for Cornyn’s Senate predecessor, Phil Gramm.

The district leans Republican. But as an incumbent, and with Democrats enthused about the Obama candidacy, Lampson is thought to have a good shot at keeping his job.

Will white Democrats, particularly in East Texas, actually vote for a black presidential candidate?

One Austinite said an older relative in East Texas told her that even some whites who normally wouldn’t vote for a black will do so this time, given the economic downturn.

“Green trumps black,” the East Texan said.

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Crow Eaten Here. . . . In a recent column, we said that the poll tax Texas used to require to vote was $1.75. Actually, it was $1.50.

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