Being a Bush: Double-edged sword for Jeb




Dave McNeely

Dave McNeely

Jeb Bush, once the presumptive person to beat for the Republican presidential nomination, is stumbling around in the single digits, despite having some $50 million spent on his behalf on TV ads.

The former two-term Florida governor, son of one former president and brother of another, is learning the hard way that while being a Bush can get you elected governor of a major state, president is another deal entirely.

Running for governor, the Bush name means you start with significant name identification, which in a major state will cost most would-be candidates millions of dollars to match.

But while you definitely get some benefit from the Bush name at the presidential level – fact is, you probably couldn’t run without it – you may be regarded quite differently than when you’re running for governor.

In 1994, when brother George W. ran for governor in Texas, and Jeb for governor in Florida, each coasted to the Republican nomination without significant opposition.

But nomination doesn’t necessarily guarantee election in November. In 1994, George W. beat incumbent Democrat Ann Richards. But Jeb lost to Democratic incumbent Lawton Chiles.

In 1998, George W. won a huge re-election in Texas, and Jeb posted a strong victory for governor over Democratic Lt. Gov. Buddy McKay.

But running for president is something different. While the fact of being a president’s son, and all that represents in terms of money, prestige, access and awe among potential voters, can stave off many significant competitors in a governor’s race, it carries much less clout in a presidential race.

For one thing, the governors and senators and others from other states who want the job are usually seasoned politicians. They got over their awe of other politicians, and particularly those with inherited name identification, some time ago.

They’re not likely to be impressed that you’re a president’s son — unless you can demonstrate that you can beat them.

And, in the case of the Bushes, the family’s politicians have records that can be run against.

President George H.W. Bush acquiesced in increased taxes, despite his 1988 pledge of “Read my lips: no new taxes.” That, plus an economic slump in 1991, and Independent billionaire candidate Ross Perot, allowed Democrat Bill Clinton to unseat him in 1992.

George W., through being a sitting governor in 2000, and starting his presidential race four years earlier, managed to gather enough endorsements from officeholders around the country that he precluded most significant would-be challengers in that year’s contest.

Dozens of potentially strong candidates considered the race, but decided to pass. A dozen did run, but seven dropped out before the primaries, and five more dropped out during them.

George W. had the nomination locked up well before the Republican National Convention ratified it.

But Jeb has had some extra hurdles in his race.

For one thing, while brother George W. ran as a sitting governor, and began his race years before he was elected, Jeb left the Florida governorship in early 2007. His campaigning chops are rusty.

Also, the fact that George W. was president cuts both ways for Jeb. The second President Bush was highly popular in 2002, the first election after the terrorist attacks on New York’s World Trade Center, and the Pentagon, on Sept. 11, 2001.

In 2002’s midterm election, even though he wasn’t on the ballot, Republican phone banks asked voters to vote for the Republican ticket to support the president.

They did. That was the first mid-term election since 1934 that a first-term president added members of his party in Congress.

However, George W. also ran up a large national debt. And his invasion of Iraq on what turned out to be faulty information about weapons of mass destruction diminished his popularity as the war dragged on.

Even though George W. won re-election in 2004, by the mid-term elections of 2006, with the growing opposition to the war in Iraq, other Republican politicians were avoiding having their pictures taken with him.

Jeb, in addition to being less comfortable on the stump than George W., also has had to face the wild-card, wild-man candidacy of billionaire mogul and media hog Donald Trump.

It is like trying to participate by the rules in a boxing tournament while a rabid ape keeps jumping in the ring. Jeb has finally been reduced to attacking Trump as a “chaos candidate” and “a jerk,” while several other candidates who attacked the celebrity showman have since dropped out.

It is a challenge. Jeb’s striving for popularity is reminiscent of the company that spent millions promoting a dog food, only to see sales actually drop.

“What’s wrong?” the company CEO asked.

The crestfallen advertising manager looked at his feet.

“The dogs won’t eat it.”

Contact McNeely at davemcneely111@gmail.com or (512) 458-2963.


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